For a Chatham House project on competing visions of international order, I wrote the chapter on China’s vision of international order in 2030. I argue 1) China articulates a Westphalian vision of order based on the primacy of states and on principles such as sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-intervention, 2) the main purpose of China’s …
Technological Competition and the US-China Rivalry
My chapter in an excellent edited volume on US-China Relations, Not Just Another Cold War, from Nobel Institute symposium held in June 2022. My chapter examines US-China how technological competition, arguing that China is seeking to become a technological superpower and the United States is increasingly focused on preventing China from fulfilling this ambition. Read …
Envisioning a Stable Military Balance in 2034
As part of a Carnegie Endowment project on US-China relations in 2034, Eric Heginbotham and I examine what a stable military balance of power in East Asia might look like. Our analysis is based on achieving such a balance through a conventional military strategy of denial. Our chapter is available here.
China’s Global Security Initiative at Two
In the China Leadership Monitor, I examine China’s Global Security Initiative, one of China’s three new global initiatives, on the second anniversary of its introduction. The article takes stock of the GSI’s development since 2022, examining and assessing its content has been fleshed out, how it has been received by other states, and how its …
China’s Defense Spending: The $700 Billion Distraction
In War on the Rocks, George Gilboy, Eric Heginbotham and I update our analysis of how to estimate China’s defense spending by using the latest PPP conversion factors from the World Bank. Read the essay here.
Estimating China’s Defense Spending
In The Texas National Security Review, George Gilboy, Eric Heginbotham and I enjoin the debate over how to measure China’s defense spending. Specifically, we introduce a methodology using sector-specific PPP conversion factors. Read the article here.
China’s Misunderstood Nuclear Expansion
In Foreign Affairs, Henrik Hiim, Magnus Troan and I wrote a short piece summarizing our much longer article in International Security. Read the article here.
China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict Over Taiwan
In The Washington Quarterly, I examine potential lessons China may be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Read the article here.
Two Paths: Why States Join or Avoid China’s Belt and Road Initiative
An article with outstanding MIT students that examines why countries do—or do not—choose to formally join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Read the article here or via a PDF.
The Myth of Chinese Diversionary War
In Foreign Affairs, I challenge the conventional wisdom that China under Xi is prone to engage in diversionary war behavior. Read the article here.