Danger at Dolam

I wrote the following op-ed, "Danger at Dolam," for the Indian Express, on July 18, 2017 *** The standoff between Indian and Chinese forces on the Dolam Plateau is entering its fourth week. India and China have both miscalculated, with potentially dire consequences. China clearly did not appreciate the sensitivity that India attaches to any [...]

Standoff at the India-China-Bhutan border

For the last several weeks, Indian and Chinese forces have confronted each other near the trijunction of the Indian, Chinese and Bhutanese borders. In the interview below, I answered some questions for the Indian website Rediff News about the origins of this episode and how it might be resolved. Read the interview here.

The Certainty of Uncertainty in U.S.-China Relations

I wrote the following essay, "The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017," for an ISSF Policy Roundtable on "U.S.-China Relations and the Trump Administration."  Other contributors include Dingding Chen, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Essay by Joseph Siracusa, Toshi Yoshihara and Zhu Feng. *** The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017 It is probably impossible to predict [...]

China’s Changing Approach to Military Strategy

In a recently published edited volume, China's Evolving Military Strategy, I examine how Chinese thinking about military strategy is changing by comparing the 2013 edition of The Science of Military Strategy to the 2001 edition. I reach two general conclusions: The 2013 edition represents an evolution of China’s approach to thinking about military strategy. It does not [...]

China and Escalation over the Senkaku Islands

In a recent article for a new journal, Global Summitry, I examine China’s behavior in the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Before 2010, China adopted a low-key approach to the dispute. After 2010, however, China chose to escalate the dispute, first in response to Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing vessel in [...]

Xi, Trump, and One China

Yesterday, I joined the conversation at ChinaFile, following President Trump's phone call with Xi Jinping and Trump's commitment to the "one China" policy: In his phone call with Xi, Trump stated he agreed “to honor our ‘one China’ policy.” During the transition before his inauguration, Trump conducted an unprecedented phone call with Taiwan President Tsai [...]

U.S. Policy Toward China

I participated in a Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, whose report was published in February 2017. The group met over the past year and a half to develop broad-based recommendations for the relationship, from the starting point of how to best uphold U.S. interests. Read the Executive Summary and the Full Report.

China’s Seizure of a U.S. Navy Drone

For the Maritime Awareness Project, I wrote a short piece analyzing the location of China's seizure of an underwater unmanned vehicle, a drone.  Most importantly, the drone was seized outsized the nine-dashed line depicted on Chinese maps and widely believed to represent China's maritime claims in the region. Read the piece here.

The Strategic Implications of the Tribunal’s Award

For The National Interest, I assess the strategic implications of the tribunal's award. I stress three implications: The award greatly narrows the scope of maritime entitlements that China (and others) can claim in the Spratlys to a 12 nautical mile territorial sea from naturally formed land features. The award sets precedent for how to determine whether [...]