Danger at Dolam

I wrote the following op-ed, "Danger at Dolam," for the Indian Express, on July 18, 2017 *** The standoff between Indian and Chinese forces on the Dolam Plateau is entering its fourth week. India and China have both miscalculated, with potentially dire consequences. China clearly did not appreciate the sensitivity that India attaches to any [...]

The Certainty of Uncertainty in U.S.-China Relations

I wrote the following essay, "The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017," for an ISSF Policy Roundtable on "U.S.-China Relations and the Trump Administration."  Other contributors include Dingding Chen, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Essay by Joseph Siracusa, Toshi Yoshihara and Zhu Feng. *** The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017 It is probably impossible to predict [...]

Xi, Trump, and One China

Yesterday, I joined the conversation at ChinaFile, following President Trump's phone call with Xi Jinping and Trump's commitment to the "one China" policy: In his phone call with Xi, Trump stated he agreed “to honor our ‘one China’ policy.” During the transition before his inauguration, Trump conducted an unprecedented phone call with Taiwan President Tsai [...]

U.S. Policy Toward China

I participated in a Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, whose report was published in February 2017. The group met over the past year and a half to develop broad-based recommendations for the relationship, from the starting point of how to best uphold U.S. interests. Read the Executive Summary and the Full Report.

Case Studies and Formal Models

I've just finished a paper with a colleague from graduate school, Peter Lorentzen, and a talented graduate student at UC Berkeley, Jack Paine. In the paper, we explore how case studies (and in particular the process tracing of causal mechanisms) can be used to evaluate formal models. Here's the abstract: In the ongoing debate about [...]

Model Worker

The folks at , a website and research firm that tracks the Chinese media and Internet, published its annual last week. The awards contain a "a list of the best specialist websites, blogs and online sources of information about China." Yours truly was listed as one of ten runner-ups for China-related tweeters. The collection of [...]

The Chinese Army Today

I have just received my copy of the second edition of Dennis Blasko's The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century (2nd edition).  For anyone interested in the modernization of China's armed forces, this book is a "must read." The revised edition of The Chinese Army Today has many strengths: First, the book examines the modernization of [...]