Last week, the Carnegie Endowment issued a strategic net assessment of the Asia-Pacific region that I and many others contributed to writing. The report takes a long view, looking out over the next 5-25 years, and outlines five possible futures that range for more cooperative to more conflictual outcomes as well as recommendations for avoiding … Continue reading Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region
Last week, James Holmes on RealClearDefense published a critique of my article with Chris Twomey on China's counter-intervention strategy. Our response was published today here.
Chris Twomey and I have just published an article in The Washington Quarterly on Chinese military strategy. Increasingly, journalists, policy analysts and scholars as well as selected U.S. government documents describe China as pursuing a ''counter-intervention'' strategy to forestall the U.S. ability to operate in a regional conflict. Moreover, the concept of counter-intervention (fan ganyu) is … Continue reading The Myth of China’s Counter-intervention Strategy
My contribution to newly published The Oxford Handbook of the International Relations of Asia is a chapter on territorial and maritime boundary disputes in the region. The main findings from the chapter are: Since 1945, Asia has been more prone to conflict over territory than other regions in the world. Asia accounts for the greatest number of disputes … Continue reading Territorial and Maritime Boundary Disputes in Asia
Oxford University Press has recently published The Oxford Handbook of the International Relations of Asia, edited by Saadia Pekkanen, John Ravenhill, and Rosemary Foot. The volume includes thirty-nine chapters, which cover all aspects of the international relations in the region. For folks who have access to the online series of Oxford handbooks, this volume is available here. … Continue reading The Oxford Handbook of the International Relations of Asia
I recently published a short policy brief for the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University that examines the evolution of U.S. policy toward the disputes in the South China Sea since 1995. Here's the executive summary: U.S. policy toward the disputes in the South China Sea has four features. First, … Continue reading U.S. Policy in the South China Sea
Yesterday, I answered some questions from the NYT's Edward Wong on the standoff between China and Vietnam over China's deployment of an oil rig in the South China Sea. Click here for all the details.
I joined the conversation over the Asia Society's ChinaFile on tensions between the China, the United States and Japan. Specifically, I addressed a question “will China attempt to take the Senkakus by force?” Let me pick up on Isaac’s first question, “will China attempt to take the Senkakus by force?” Iain Johnston and I recently analyzed data on the frequency … Continue reading China, Japan, and the U.S.—Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Iain Johnston and I have written a short piece over on The Monkey Cage blog. Using new data from Japan's Coast Guard, we identify a significant decline in the frequency of Chinese patrols around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and explore some reasons for this change in behavior. Read the story here.
Hainan’s provincial government has become an increasingly prominent and active player in the South China Sea disputes. In November 2012, Hainan’s People’s Congress issued new regulations on coastal border security that raised questions about freedom for navigation in the South China Sea (see analysis hereand here). In November 2013, the same legislative body issued “measures” (banfa, 办法) … Continue reading Hainan’s New Fishing Rules: A Preliminary Analysis