I wrote the following essay, “The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017,” for an ISSF Policy Roundtable on “U.S.-China Relations and the Trump Administration.” Other contributors include Dingding Chen, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Essay by Joseph Siracusa, Toshi Yoshihara and Zhu Feng. *** The Certainty of Uncertainty: U.S.-China Relations in 2017 It is probably impossible to predict …
China’s Changing Approach to Military Strategy
In a recently published edited volume, China’s Evolving Military Strategy, I examine how Chinese thinking about military strategy is changing by comparing the 2013 edition of The Science of Military Strategy to the 2001 edition. I reach two general conclusions: The 2013 edition represents an evolution of China’s approach to thinking about military strategy. It does not …
China and Escalation over the Senkaku Islands
In a recent article for a new journal, Global Summitry, I examine China’s behavior in the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Before 2010, China adopted a low-key approach to the dispute. After 2010, however, China chose to escalate the dispute, first in response to Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing vessel in …
Xi, Trump, and One China
Yesterday, I joined the conversation at ChinaFile, following President Trump’s phone call with Xi Jinping and Trump’s commitment to the “one China” policy: In his phone call with Xi, Trump stated he agreed “to honor our ‘one China’ policy.” During the transition before his inauguration, Trump conducted an unprecedented phone call with Taiwan President Tsai …
U.S. Policy Toward China
I participated in a Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, whose report was published in February 2017. The group met over the past year and a half to develop broad-based recommendations for the relationship, from the starting point of how to best uphold U.S. interests. Read the Executive Summary and the Full Report.
China’s Seizure of a U.S. Navy Drone
For the Maritime Awareness Project, I wrote a short piece analyzing the location of China’s seizure of an underwater unmanned vehicle, a drone. Most importantly, the drone was seized outsized the nine-dashed line depicted on Chinese maps and widely believed to represent China’s maritime claims in the region. Read the piece here.
The Strategic Implications of the Tribunal’s Award
For The National Interest, I assess the strategic implications of the tribunal’s award. I stress three implications:
Why China Cares About the South China Sea
For The Washington Post, I examine why China cares so much about its territorial claims in the South China Sea. I do so by comparing briefly why China was able to settle so many of its land boundary disputes but so few of its offshore island disputes. The reasons are:
My Take on the Tribunal’s Award
I wrote the following for ChinaFile: My initial reaction is that the tribunal’s award overwhelmingly favors the Philippines—a huge win for Manila.
China’s Historic Rights Claims
For the Maritime Awareness Project, I examine how three recent fishing disputes between China and Indonesia prompted China to clarify its claims to historic rights.